Market review, July 2, 2019

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2019-07-02 13:01:17

Good news for “hodlers”: Bitcoin has been a profitable investment 98.2% of the days since its creation. Meanwhile, BTC entered a “hidden phase” of a “bullish” market, according to another study.

Based on the data of Holdcalc.com, if we count from January 4, 2009 (3,830 days ago) to the present day, then 3,761 days were beneficial to invest in Bitcoin. Thus, only 69 unprofitable days remain, including almost all days of December 2017, at the peak of the historical growth of BTC to $20,000, as well as almost the whole of January 2018.

However, this study is hardly worth taking seriously. The number of “profitable” days ranges with the current price, and in the case of continued correction, the ratio will become much less impressive.

In parallel with the statistics of holdcalc, an analysis of the cryptocurrency market appeared, which indicates that Bitcoin entered the so-called “hidden phase” of a renewed “bullish” rally. The study states that the largest cryptocurrency has crossed its 50-week and 50-day moving averages, and the realized value of bitcoin is being analyzed - an indicator that was first proposed by the researcher at Coin Metrics.

Realized value, as emphasized in the study, is a weighted market capitalization of unspent exits for BTC, that is, a measure of the value of all coins in circulation at the price at which they were last transferred. In addition, other network data, such as hashrate and bitcoin mining complexity, the number of active addresses of wallets and transactions per day, either exceed or are close to their record highs.

To prove that the coin is now in a “hidden phase” of a “bullish” market, analysts provide a chart showing the logarithmic rise in Bitcoin prices and public interest in it - comparing the BTC: USD ratio with the Google Trends results for the “Bitcoin” query.

The study argues that the public as a whole has failed to assess the current price increase, given that today “the number of requests to Google about Bitcoin when its price is above $10,000 is about the same as when it cost $1,000 in 2013.” However, due to wide media coverage in recent years, Bitcoin has already ceased to be a novelty, and now it is difficult to meet a person who has never heard of cryptocurrency.

To date, the price of Bitcoin hovers around $10,800, having lost more than 6% in the last 24 hours.

Technical analysis of Bitcoin (BTC):

Over the past day, bitcoin pushed off from the support level of $10,500 and slightly increased, then it dropped to the support level of $9,750. Now, the price of bitcoin is $8,800. It stays on a strong support level. Bitcoin can go down to the next support level of $9,400. The nearest resistance levels are $10,360, $10,650. The nearest support levels are $9,750, $9,400.

Technical analysis of Ethereum (ETH):

Over the past day, ethereum rose in price, as we expected, to a resistance level of $300. After that, it fell, reaching a support level of $271. Now, the price of ethereum is $280. We assume that ethereum may fall to the level of support of $264. The nearest resistance levels are $280, $285. The nearest support levels are $271, $264.

Technical analysis of Ripple (XRP):

Over the past 24 hours, ripple fell to the support level of $0.3820. We are waiting for the continuation of the negative movement. Now, the price of ripple is $0.3850. Let's be patient. The nearest resistance levels are $0.3940, $0.4030. The nearest support levels are $0.3820, $0.36.

Disclaimer. This review is only for information purposes and cannot be considered as a proposal or an indication to perform certain transactions in the financial and commodity markets. The estimates and recommendations in the review are the personal opinion of the company's analysts. The company's view on the prospects for individual financial instruments is valid as of the date of the report. The Company does not assume any liability and liabilities for compensation for damage that may result from the use of this report.
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